Arbitrum launches own token ARB on Thursday – high expectations

Arbitrum is launching its token ARB on Thursday and in the run-up analysts are wondering what price level could be realistic. Optimism (OP) is often used as a comparison.

Many investors will have already marked Thursday (March 23) in red in their calendars, because then Arbitrum will celebrate the launch and stock market debut of its own token with ARB. At launch, 12.75 percent of all ARB will be distributed via airdrop to active users of Arbitrum for free, initially forming the entire pool of ARB that can be bought and sold. Arbitrum is a Layer 2 solution in the Ethereum (ETH) ecosystem and is often compared to Optimism (OP), where its own token has been on the market since June 2022. If you look around on Twitter, you’ll quickly come across analysts who want to infer what entry prices to expect for Arbitrum based on this comparison.

Average Joe’s Crypto, for example, sees Optimism and Arbitrum’s past performance in the decentralized finance (DeFi) space as the most important criteria. There, Arbitrum, with a current TVL of $1.8 billion, clearly has the edge over Optimism with $970 million. Using data from the previous week, the analyst concludes that an extrapolated price of around 1.84 US dollars per ARB would be realistic and Arbitrum should emerge from a standing start in a place around 30 among the most capitalized cryptocurrencies.

Forecasts by Twitter users ponz and silto, for example, remain more cautious. They see ARB at a level around 1 US dollar at the start and also refer to the experience with Optimism. Arbitrum will only gain sustainable value over time, according to their thesis. It is essential to keep an eye on when further ARB tokens will be released on Arbitrum and how the markets will then react.

Sisyphus on Twitter also considers this point to be crucial. With Optimism, less than ten percent of all OPs are on the market so far and deadlines expire from May 2023, so that further tokens will then regularly come into circulation. At Arbitrum, a jump in circulating ARBs is expected from spring 2024, because holding periods for the team and early investors will expire then. Sisyphus predicts, with some irony, that ARB should initially trade at around $1 when selling off after the airdrop. Subsequently, investors would then likely stock up again with Arbitrum at prices of US$2, only to ultimately find that pump-and-dump is being played.

Bottom line: Arbitrum token ARB under scrutiny for stock market debut

Blockchain data shows: Between 650 and 10,250 ARB will be distributed individually for Arbitrum’s airdrop, and this is definitely an enjoyable experience for qualified participants given the predicted prices. Those looking to add Arbitrum to their own portfolios starting Thursday may be able to learn from other major stock market debuts in recent months. Whether it was Aptos (APT), Shimmer (SMR) or BLUR, the price curves of new cryptocurrencies turned negative after the first few days of trading and then offered the best time to enter. Arbitrum (ARB) is immediately listed by Binance and other leading crypto exchanges at the start on Thursday, which guarantees liquidity.

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