The price curve of Bitcoin (BTC) has been stuck for weeks with sideways movements in a corridor between 10,000 and 11,000 US dollars. Crypto analyst Philip Swift reads clues from details that could herald a bull market for Bitcoin.
Investors in Bitcoin (BTC) follow very different methods in their individual price forecasts. Some rely on macroeconomic evidence, while others focus on the Bitcoin Futures market. An equally large warehouse conducts technical analyses. This includes Philip Swift, who has made a name for himself as a cryptoanalyst through his website LookIntoBitcoin and other projects. Swift currently sees Bitcoin as a sign of a beginning bull market with corresponding price gains.
What allows optimism for Bitcoin price?
On Twitter Swift reveals the details that lead him to his prediction. In his opinion, SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) is particularly important. This indicator has been collected since summer 2019 and shows whether BTC traders are selling at a profit or a loss. A SOPR of 1 means a neutral environment, values of more than 1 sale with profit and SOPR of less than 1 sale of Bitcoin with loss. Swift now regards curve of SOPR by Tweet and concludes from it: The SOPR moves scarcely under 1 and must be interpreted as purchase possibility for the forthcoming bull market.
Not only Swift stresses besides the fact that the Hashrate with Bitcoin last reached all time highs and likewise the degree of difficulty for Bitcoin Mining. These figures therefore demonstrate a generally positive environment for the price of BTC from a technical stock market perspective.
Bull market for Bitcoin – what speaks against it?
It is worth noting: If one takes the Black Thursday of March as a reference point, Bitcoin has recovered from dramatic losses. At the same time, however, it has become clear that BTC is not developing as independently of the stock markets as often thought. The faltering global economy, the threat of inflation, the Corona crisis, U.S. presidential elections – such influences should actually increase the attractiveness of Bitcoin as an independent store of value and thus increase prices. But this scenario has not really materialized so far. Also the Bitcoin Halving of May did not affect so far clearly positively the price of BTC.
Conclusion: Is there a golden fall for Bitcoin?
The desire for clearly positive trends in the BTC price is understandable and there are good arguments for Bitcoin to develop in this direction. On the other hand, we must also note that the 11,000 and briefly 12,000 US dollar brands have proved to be too difficult hurdles for Bitcoin in recent months. Will BTC now take enough of a run-up in the fall to make the jump and then gallop on open terrain? Swift says yes and finds himself in good company, like the Winklevoss brothers or the Nasdaq company MicroStrategy, who are losing confidence in the US dollar. While the latter think in macroeconomic terms, Swift refers to comparatively recent technical indicators such as SOPR.
However, keep in mind that the Bitcoin forecasts are predominantly from active market participants and are by no means as neutral as sometimes suggested. The fact remains: There is still a lot of room for improvement until Bitcoin’s all-time high of December 2017 and $20,000 per BTC.
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