The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) case against Ripple (XP) is in the home stretch, with a ruling expected in H1 2023. Investors are currently transferring massive amounts of XRP worth at least $1.5 billion.
For Ripple (XRP), the crypto year 2022 probably ends in the situation of having to wait further for a verdict in the mammoth trial against the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). As predicted, both the SEC and Ripple have recently reiterated their positions, calling on Judge Analisa Torres to end the proceedings in writing and not schedule any public hearings. Ripple chief counsel Stuart Aldertoy summarized on Twitter, “We’re at the beginning of the end in the process with the SEC.” Large investors are apparently viewing the development with some nervousness and are redepositing massive amounts of XRP.
The data service Whale Alert has recorded more than a dozen transactions this week alone, each involving the rebooking of XRP worth more than $100 million. In total, up to 10 percent of all XRP in circulation has thus been moved in December, with a total value exceeding US$1.5 billion. But what the data does not provide is a clear clue to the crucial question of whether market participants predict Ripple will be able to win the sharp battle with the SEC. After all, the large XRP transactions involve deposits at crypto exchanges as well as withdrawals or simply the transfer from one wallet to another. Behind this can be security measures as well as direct transactions or preparations to buy or sell XRP.
Even well-known lawyers such as James Filan and Jeremy Hogan, who continuously observe the Ripple process, are currently holding back with predictions. Hogan quips via Twitter that he will now miss the legal quality of the Ripple writings. Filan also used Twitter to pay respect to Ripple lawyers for their work so far. But whether XRP can expect a positive verdict or the SEC will prevail – on this question, the expert audience does not want to commit.
Conclusion: XRP under observation – process with SEC in final phase
The price curve of XRP reflects the uncertainty about the process outcome. XRP slipped over the last 30 days with almost 17 percent significantly into the red, but with the crypto lead currency Bitcoin (BTC), the price development over the same period was almost as disappointing. Ripple is optimistic about getting rid of the SEC as an unwanted regulator through a court ruling. The SEC, on the other hand, knows about the symbolic nature of the Ripple lawsuit and is not signaling that it is interested in a settlement. Thus, it remains an open trial, which probably can only be concluded by the judge in New York.