Bitcoin and the US presidential election – What to expect?

In the USA, incumbent Donald Trump declared himself the winner of the presidential election ahead of schedule. Whether Trump will really win the election is still open. But investors are wondering what the presidential election could mean for the Bitcoin (BTC) price.

The whole world is looking to the USA and the presidential election there. Donald Trump already sees himself as the winner on this Wednesday morning, but opponent Joe Biden also interprets the present results for himself. It is possible that the USA will have a hanging battle for days or even weeks until an official election winner is actually announced. But the markets are not taking a break and Bitcoin (BTC) is currently fluctuating around the 13,600 US dollar mark, close to its annual high. Do the political events have the potential to significantly influence the price curve of Bitcoin?

Bitcoin price: Review of previous US elections

Since the BTC has existed, the United States has completed two presidential elections. Barack Obama was able to secure his re-election in 2012 and Bitcoin showed a modest plus of 10 percent in the following month. Whether this was due to the election results is uncertain. What is clear, however, is that BTC 2012 was quoted in regions of a good 10 US dollars and was far from its current significance.

Bitcoin was still a niche topic in 2016. The historical charts show a small plus of 5 percent in Donald Trump’s first election victory for BTC at prices of a good $700 per Bitcoin. Here, too, a direct connection can hardly be proven. But those who simply did not care about the U.S. elections in their investment strategy were allowed to achieve returns with BTC at HODL between 2012 and 2016 that left all other asset classes far behind.

USA chooses 2020 – does this affect Bitcoin?

In 2020, BTC has entered the mainstream. Trump has made disparaging comments about Bitcoin in 2019, but has had no demonstrable impact on the markets. Biden is apparently not a fan of BTC either, at least he made it public on Twitter in the summer of 2020 that he does not own Bitcoin. But Biden’s team does have some supporters of BTC.

The thesis that Bitcoin will win anyway, regardless of the outcome of the presidential election, is widespread. What is meant by this is: The monetary policy situation with substantial inflation dangers pushes investors toward BTC anyway. It should also be noted, however, that the price curve of BTC has not always been able to decouple itself from the trends on the stock markets.

Uncertainties about the future US president seem to have already been priced in, with leading indices such as the DAX and NASDAQ remaining quiet so far this Wednesday. Traditionally, big industry prefers market-conservative policies, which Trump demonstrated in his first term of office, for example, by cutting taxes. On the other hand, the important IT sector in the USA with representatives such as Google, Facebook, Apple, Microsoft and Amazon can do little with Trump’s polemics against a multicultural USA. Trump is also blamed for the trade war with China.

Biden, on the other hand, could calm foreign policy and is likely to be anxious to find a balance in the internal conflicts in the USA. His economic program, however, could mean more regulation and will not immediately prompt the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy to change course.

Conclusion: Bitcoin is apolitical

We can question the crystal ball again and again: But its answers to the question of what the future US president will now be called should be treated with caution at first. The same applies to forecasts about the price of BTC. Major influences of the presidential election on Bitcoin cannot be directly foreseen, but the global market environment remains more important. Expansive monetary policy and increasing demand for BTC are price drivers that speak for an investment in Bitcoin, regardless of Trump vs. Then in 2024, at the next US election, the cards are already shuffled quite differently. Long-term thinking investors are probably more likely to have their eyes on the next Bitcoin Halving and hope to see the price of BTC multiply again by 2024.

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